The State Statistics Service of Ukraine says the number of deaths in Ukraine as of late April 2018 exceeds the number of births almost twice. In particular, the rate is 100 deaths per 54 newborns, the Service said in its express edition on June 18. It is reported the population of Ukraine decreased by 85,700 people in January-April 2018, to 42.3 million people as of May 1. As UNIAN reported earlier, the population of Ukraine could decrease by more than 6 million people, to 36.4 million people by 2050.
UNIAN has polled a number of experts on the trends and reasons for the demographic drop in Ukraine. Ukraine’s population has been shrinking, and that’s a fact. Today we are talking about 42.5 million Ukrainians, while by 2050, the demographers say the population will drop to 35-37 million people.
Earlier, experts from Bloomberg, calculated that by 2050 the population of Ukraine will decrease by 36%.
The main factor of a significant reduction in the number of Ukrainians is the natural decline in the population (people die much more often than they are born). From January to July 2017, just over 209,000 babies were born, while more than 340,000 people died. The very birth rate is getting lower every year (in the same period last year, there were 227,000 newborns reported) and, according to demographers, this trend will prevail.
A senior fellow at the Institute of Demography and Social Studies Svitlana Aksyonova calls “demographic waves” the dominating factor of this worrisome prospect. The essence of this phenomenon is very simple: a decrease in the birth rate in a given period of time causes a reduction in the birth rate after a certain period in the future. In the 20th century, Ukraine survived World War 2, after which there were very few newborns. Then, a generation later, few children were born in the 1980-1990s (up until 2001, there was a collapse in the birth rate due to different crises). “Now the children who were born in the 90s are entering their active child-bearing age. But there are a few of them, too… And we can’t claim that the birth rate can compensate for this somehow,” Aksyonova said. “As of today, the total fertility rate is about 15 children per 10 women. And we see no trends toward the increase in this intensity, “she complains. It is curious to note that in recent years, up to 2016, there has been an increase in the birth rate among 35-39-year-old women. While in 2001, only nine out of 1,000 women of this age group decided to give birth (including first births, second, and third as well), by 2015 there were already 27 such women, so their share has tripled. Unfortunately, since 2016, the intensity of fertility began to decline for women of all age groups.
Based on UKRINFORM